ONOF Report on family and relational homicides in italy, september 2025: risk binaries and criminological transformation

Edited by Massimo Lattanzi and Tiziana Calzone

I. Executive Summary and Relocation of Criminogenic Risks

September 2025 marked a structural shift and a turning point in the landscape of lethal violence in Italy, as highlighted by the analysis conducted by the National Observatory on Family Homicides (ONOF). The data indicates not only the intensification of pre-existing phenomena but also the emergence of two parallel and distinct binaries that relocate the primary criminogenic risks within society.

The Social Binary has become predominant in terms of relational context. Violence among "acquaintances" experienced a critical jump of +19% compared to the previous month, now representing the prevalent context in 57% of all homicides. This phenomenon is closely linked to a perpetrator profile of mature or elderly men, predominantly between 54 and 71 years old (44% of total male perpetrators), and is most concentrated in the South and Islands. This increase suggests that the escalation does not primarily stem from the crisis of the intimate family unit, but from the failure of social and economic mechanisms for resolving broader disputes, such as neighborhood quarrels, debt management, or interpersonal conflicts. The degeneration of such conflicts into homicidal acts highlights the need to complement clinical tools with urgent social policy interventions aimed at addressing the failure of institutional and community mechanisms for dispute resolution.

In parallel, the Intimate Binary has registered a dramatic intensification. The victim realignment to parity (50% Men and 50% Women) cannot be read as neutral data but signals a sharp increase in lethal gender-based violence compared to August. Although social violence dominates the total relational incidence (57% acquaintances), women continue to face the lethal constant of femmicide (using the term femminicidio as requested by saved information). Women are exposed to a specific and nearly exclusive homicidal risk: 75% of female victims were killed by their partner. This structural persistence requires prevention strategies that intercept the lethal constant of femmicide, even while public resources must address the emergency of the social variable.

Phenomenologically, the picture is supported by the collapse in the use of bladed weapons (-46%). This change suggests a significant transition from impulsive crimes to a more "resolutive" or premeditated violence, supported by the increase in the use of Firearms (+14%) and the use of the "Other" category (+21%), the latter being associated with modalities of overkill and annihilation.

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II. Methodological Note and Analytical Context (ONOF/AIPC)

This study aims to examine family and relational homicides that occurred in September 2025, applying the principles of relational psychotraumatology.

The methodology is based exclusively on the monitoring and data collection from open sources (press agencies, newspapers, local news) by ONOF. It is essential to specify that the results presented do not derive from official or institutional statistics. The use of open sources guarantees superior analytical responsiveness, which is fundamental for the analysis of emerging monthly trends, but implies an awareness of a potential notoriety bias. Despite the source limitation, the internal consistency of the identified profiles—for example, the stability of the datum that 75% of female victims are killed by their partner—confirms the reliability of the analysis for key relational dynamics.

The analysis applies a psychological autopsy based on the clinical frameworks of AIPC/CIPR, which integrate Polyvagal Theory and Attachment Theory. This integration is crucial as it allows interpreting homicide not only through the legal lens of intent (impulsive intent or premeditation) but as an extreme nervous system response to the collapse of a pathological control structure. Premeditation, in this clinical sense, can transcend logistical planning (such as purchasing a weapon) and include psychological preparation to commit a "resolutive" act when the dysfunctional spiral reaches its climax.

III. The Structural Change in Lethal Violence (August vs. September 2025)

The comparison between September and August 2025 data reveals that lethal violence has undergone a rapid and profound transformation, indicating a criminological turning point due to the activation of new relational dynamics.

III.I. Gender Realignment (50/50 Parity) There has been a "dramatic realignment" in the gender distribution of homicide victims. While August registered a clear male prevalence (64% Men, 36% Women), the distribution reached parity (50% Men, 50% Women) in September. This data, while not representing an absolute increase in homicides, signals a sharp increase in lethality within the female relational context compared to the previous month, highlighting that protective dynamics have not compensated for the increased risk.

III.II. Critical Jump in Broadened Conflicts The most alarming data is the exponential growth of crimes committed among acquaintances. These rose from 38% of the total in August to 57% in September, marking a jump of +19%. This shift is definitive evidence of the emergence of the "social binary" as the prevalent context of lethal violence, moving the focus from domestic and conjugal conflicts to disputes occurring in broader relationships (neighborhoods, economic disputes, and social quarrels).

III.III. Trend in Attempted Homicides and Difference in Intentio Necandi In attempted homicides, male prevalence strengthens further, increasing from 61% in August to 72% in September (+11%). The gap between the parity reached in completed homicides (50% women) and the male dominance in attempted homicides (72%) suggests a fundamental difference in intentio necandi or modus operandi depending on gender. The violence that leads to femmicide (75% Partner) is often characterized by a more marked lethal intent and the use of overkill. Violence against men, while increasing (especially in the social context), may have a less methodical or less exclusively focused immediate lethal outcome.

The variation in the main indicators defining this structural change highlights four crucial points. First, the percentage of female victims in total homicides increased by 14% (from 36% to 50%), signaling an increase in gender-based violence. Second, the "Acquaintances" context increased by 19% (from 38% to 57%), confirming the prevalence of social violence. Third, the percentage of male victims in attempted homicides increased by 11% (from 61% to 72%), indicating an increase in male/social contention. Finally, the use of bladed weapons in homicides collapsed by 46% (from 73% to 27%), suggesting a decrease in impulsive crimes.

Listen to the podcast on the AIPC Editore Channel on Spotify MENTE|CRIMINE|TRAUMA, “ONOF Report on Family and Relational Homicides in Italy, September 2025: Risk Binaries and Criminological Transformation” click on the link: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6zt7r6WxkyjwfDvmAmnl6y?si=H_ZbILeGQeCwgNS8huX_ww

IV. The Intimate Binary: Analysis of the Lethal Constant of Femmicide

Intimate violence remains a lethal constant. The analysis of the female victim profile in September 2025 confirms that the homicidal risk for women resides primarily within the domestic walls and the affective relationship.

IV.I. Victim Profile, Age, and Partner Risk The female victim is predominantly young, with 50.5% of cases concentrated in the 18 to 35 age group. The relational risk factor is clear: 75% of female victims are killed by their Partner. Geographically, 60% of cases are concentrated in the Central Italy area. This concentration of femmicide in the Center, in stark contrast to the prevalence of social violence in the South, suggests that the socio-cultural and economic factors that destabilize intimate relationships and trigger lethality may differ from those that initiate quarrels between acquaintances. This geographical distinction implies the need to structure prevention programs that are territorially modulated, capable of addressing the specificities of intimate risk in the Center.

IV.II. Modus Operandi and Dynamics of Annihilation In terms of modus operandi, the prevalent weapon for homicides of female victims is the "Other" category (52% of cases). The prevalence of "Other"—which includes methods requiring prolonged physical interaction such as strangulation or beatings—is a strong indicator of overkill. This mode of execution is fully consistent with the psychotraumatological interpretation of the total destructiveness of the family unit and the collapse of pathological control. The goal is not simply to kill, but to annihilate the person who represents the relational fracture or the threat to the perpetrator's power structure. It is also relevant that the male perpetrator involved in intimate violence does not show the same demographic concentration by age (54-71 years) observed in the social binary, indicating that the risk related to control and dysfunctional attachment is transversal.

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V. The Social Binary: Criminology of Broadened Conflicts and Perpetrator Demographics

The analysis of the social binary focuses on the mature/elderly perpetrator and the escalation of conflicts between acquaintances, predominantly in specific geographic areas.

V.I. The Male Victim Profile and Localization The male victim predominantly falls into the 36-53 age group (36% of cases) and is a victim of Acquaintances in 60% of cases. The strong geographical concentration (67% in the South and Islands) suggests that socio-economic and cultural factors in the South favor the degeneration of broadened relational conflicts into acts of lethal violence.

V.II. The Role of the Elderly Male Perpetrator (54-71 years old) The male perpetrator, who commits 82% of total homicides, is predominantly mature or elderly, with 44% of cases in the 54-71 age group. His prevalent relationship is with Acquaintances (55.5%). This demographic data is a significant marker, as it indicates that lethal violence cannot be limited only to youth or mid-life problems. The contrast between elderly perpetrators and victims of middle age suggests that homicides are the outcome of prolonged conflicts and the inability of older individuals to manage relational fractures or stress with non-violent means. This evidence directs the urgency of developing specific support programs for the management of economic/relational stress aimed at the elderly population, often overlooked in violence prevention plans.

V.III. Modus Operandi of Social Violence The modus operandi in this binary is characterized by equal shares in the use of Firearms (33.5%) and the "Other" Weapon category (33.5%). The frequency of firearm use in a context of violence among acquaintances confirms the hypothesis of greater premeditation or a resolutive logic typical of disputes. Access to and use of firearms is a strong indicator of the nature of these conflicts, often facilitated by the greater availability of such tools in environments related to social crime.

The criminological distinction between the two binaries can be summarized by examining the key profiles. The female victim (Intimate Binary) is predominantly young (18-35 years old), killed by her Partner in 75% of cases, concentrated in Central Italy (60%), and the predominant weapon is "Other" (52%). Conversely, the male victim (Social Binary) is predominantly in the 36-53 age group, killed by Acquaintances (60%), concentrated in the South and Islands (67%), and the modus operandi shows parity between bladed weapons and firearms (33% each). Finally, the typical male perpetrator (Social Binary) is mature/elderly (54-71 years old), kills Acquaintances (55.5%), and primarily operates in the South and Islands (55.5%) using firearms or "Other" weapons (33.5% each).

VI. Phenomenological Indicators: Premeditation, Impulse, and the "Resolutive" Logic

The analysis of variations in the armament used to commit homicides provides objective proof of the shift from impulsive violence to planned or prolonged violence.

VI.I. Interpretation of the Decline in Bladed Weapon Use The 46% collapse in the use of bladed weapons (dropping from 73% in August to 27% in September) is considered a crucial indicator. The bladed weapon is a symbol of an impulsive crime, committed at close range in an emotional peak. The massive decline indicates that homicidal violence in September was, on average, less characterized by raptus and more by acts implying preparation or a non-immediate escalation.

VI.II. The Increase in Firearms and "Other" Weapons The simultaneous increase in Firearms (+14%) and the "Other" category (+21%) is the marker of the shift to more deliberate dynamics. The frequent use of Firearms reinforces the hypothesis of greater premeditation, especially in the context of social disputes where the weapon is a tool of resolution. The increase in the "Other" category in homicidal methods indicates greater physical interaction and a deep desire to inflict annihilation.

A further differentiation emerges from the perpetrator profiles. The female perpetrator (minority) kills exclusively with a bladed weapon (100%), consistent with the association with impulse. The male perpetrator (majority), however, distributes the risk between Firearms and "Other"—weapons associated with premeditation and annihilation. This suggests that for the female perpetrator, the lethal act is an extreme peak of rage, while for the male perpetrator, it is often a methodical strategy of resolution or annihilation, depending on the violence binary.

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VII. Psychotraumatological Analysis: "Resolutive" Homicide vs. "Desperate" Homicide

The absence of certain dynamics and the analysis of extreme cases allow defining the intrinsic motivation of September homicides as predominantly "resolutive" rather than "desperate."

VII.I. Family Massacre and the Collapse of Control The "family massacre" case analyzed by ONOF, in which a man confessed to multiple homicides, is a typical example of the peak of a dysfunctional spiral and the collapse of a pathological control structure. In the psychotraumatological reading, these acts are not sudden raptus, but the consequence of the perpetrator's inability to manage relational fractures or external stress. The perpetrator perceives the family unit as an extension of themselves to be controlled or eliminated when this extension threatens their power or identity.

VII.II. The Absence of Homicide-Suicide The total absence of suicides and attempted suicides among perpetrators in September (elements present in August) is a phenomenologically highly relevant datum. This absence reinforces the hypothesis of less "desperate" violence—typical of passionate homicide-suicide, where the act is driven by a pathology of pain and existential failure—and more "resolutive" and conflictual. Homicide is seen as the definitive conclusion of a dispute, not as the act preceding the end of the perpetrator's existence. This transition from a pathology of pain to a pathology of contention indicates an emotional disinvestment such that there is no room for guilt or self-punishment.

VIII. Conclusions and Strategic Recommendations

The criminological and psychotraumatological evidence from September 2025 indicates that society is simultaneously exposed to a constant intimate risk (femmicide) and an emerging and acute social risk (violence among acquaintances). Strategic recommendations must account for this bimodal risk distribution.

VIII.I. Intervention Strategies for Social Violence (Dispute Management) Since social violence is primarily the outcome of unresolved disputes and involves perpetrators of mature age in the South/Islands, it is necessary to act at the meso-social level to restore healthy conflict regulation mechanisms.

• Mediation and Extrajudicial Resolution: The development of platforms dedicated to the extrajudicial resolution of neighborhood conflicts and economic disputes is fundamental. These tools must be specifically targeted in high-incidence regions (South and Islands).
• Specific Demographic Psychological Support: Support programs for the management of economic and relational stress focused on the 54-71 age group are recommended, in order to prevent the escalation of contention into homicidal acts by the "Elderly-Perpetrator" risk category.

VIII.II. Clinical Recommendations for Femmicide Prevention (Intercepting Annihilation) Intimate violence requires a clinical approach aimed at intercepting the risk markers of total annihilation and pathological control.

• Early Diagnosis of Pathological Control: It is crucial to strengthen the training of operators (health, social, and police) on the diagnosis of signs that precede the collapse of the "pathological control structure." The goal is to identify the risk markers of annihilation, which often manifest as extreme alienation and relational disinvestment before the lethal act.
• Monitoring of Atypical Armament: It is necessary to monitor the use of unconventional weapons ("Other" category) in intimate dynamics, as the use of methods requiring overkill is a strong indicator of highly intentional and premeditated violence in the context of total destructiveness.

If you recognize yourself in these dynamics, if you are a victim or witness of violence that you don't know how to stop, do not remain silent. Asking for help is the first step to breaking the chain. The Italian Center for Relational Psychotraumatology (CIPR) offers specialized paths to escape the nightmare of violence. Our professionals in Pescara and Rome are ready to listen to you and provide you with the necessary support. Contact us: Email: aipcitalia@gmail.com Reference

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