Analysis of family homicides in Italy: ONOF unveils hidden patterns and relational dynamics in the week of october 23-29, 2025.

By: Massimo Lattanzi, Tiziana Calzone, Francesca Candus Sources: Data collected and analyzed by the National Observatory on Family Homicides (ONOF), the operational arm of the Italian Association of Psychology and Criminology (AIPC) and the Italian Center for Relational Psychotraumatology (CIPR).

Introduction: The Importance of Monitoring in Prevention The analysis of family violence requires a scientific, constant, and multidisciplinary approach. In this context, the Italian Association of Psychology and Criminology (AIPC), the Italian Center for Relational Psychotraumatology (CIPR), and the National Observatory on Family Homicides (ONOF) represent the Italian vanguard in the study of these phenomena. Through the application of Judicial Relational Psychotraumatology, these entities, under the scientific coordination of Massimo Lattanzi and Tiziana Calzone, aim to go beyond simply counting crimes, to map their traumatic-relational roots.

ONOF's weekly work, based on rigorous monitoring of open sources (OSINT) – that is, the systematic analysis of news cases reported by journalistic sources – is crucial. It allows for the transformation of "noise" from crime news into structured data, offering a high-resolution snapshot of criminal patterns. This analysis is not merely a statistical exercise but a fundamental tool for prevention.

Section 1: Victim Profile (October 23-29, 2025) In the reference week (October 23-29, 2025), ONOF's data analysis on family homicides highlights a dramatic picture. Out of a total of 3 homicides recorded, the predominant victim profile is female.

• Gender: Lethal violence affected 67% women (2 victims) and 33% men (1 victim).
• Age: The age data is cross-cutting. Victims are almost equally distributed among the age groups 18-35 years (33%), 36-53 years (33%), and 54-71 years (34%). Analyzing the data by gender, a trend emerges: female victims fall into the 18-35 and 36-53 age groups, while the only male victim falls into the 54-71 age group.
• Geographic Distribution: Northern Italy confirms itself as the epicenter of homicidal violence this week, with 67% of cases (2 victims).
• Relationship with the Perpetrator: This is the most significant data. Violence against women this week is femicide: one victim was killed by a Partner (33%) and the other by a Relative (33%). The only male victim (34%) was killed by an Acquaintance.

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Section 2: Perpetrator Profile (October 23-29, 2025) The profile of the alleged or confessed perpetrator of family homicide is, this week, statistically unequivocal.

• Gender: 100% of perpetrators (3 individuals) are male.
• Age: The predominant age group is 36-53 years, which accounts for 67% of perpetrators (2 men).
• Geographic Distribution: Consistent with victim data, 67% of perpetrators (2 men) acted in Northern Italy.
• Relationship with the Victim: The perpetrators' profile is diverse and mirrors that of the victims. Male perpetrators killed a Partner (33%), a Relative (33%), and an Acquaintance (34%).

Section 3: Correlation and Evolutionary Analysis (October 16-22 vs. October 23-29) ONOF's analysis gains its full scientific value in continuity. Comparing the data from the week of October 23-29 with that of the immediately preceding week (October 16-22, 2025), alarming constants and significant variables emerge.

Constants (Stable Patterns)

• Gender Asymmetry: Lethal violence has a gender. In both weeks, the alleged perpetrator's profile is 100% Male.
• Prevailing Victim: In both weeks, the prevailing victim profile is Female (67%).
• Geography of Risk: Northern Italy confirms itself as the epicenter of risk, recording 67% of homicides in both periods.
• Relational Matrix: Familiarity (partner, ex-partner, relatives, acquaintances) remains the central node of lethal conflict in both analyses.

Variables (Evolving Patterns)

• Victim's Age (The Target): Here, the clearest difference emerges. The week of October 16-22 saw an older victim profile, with a concentration of 67% in the 54-71 age group. The week of October 23-29, however, shows a lowering of age and a cross-cutting distribution affecting the 18-35 (33%) and 36-53 (33%) age groups. The risk, while remaining on women, has "shifted" towards a demographically younger target.
• Perpetrator's Age: The perpetrator's age also shows a shift. In the week of October 16-22, the profile was distributed across more mature age groups (36-53, 54-71, 72+). The week of October 23-29, instead, shows a clear concentration of perpetrators in the 36-53 age group (67%).

The comparison demonstrates that, while macro-dynamics remain unchanged (Men killing Women in Northern Italy), the demographic profile of both victims and perpetrators fluctuates significantly, indicating the activation of conflicts in different population segments from week to week.

Listen to the podcast on the AIPC Editore Spotify Channel MENTE|CRIMINE|TRAUMA: "Analysis of family homicides in Italy: ONOF unveils hidden patterns and relational dynamics in the week of October 23-29, 2025," click on the link:

https://open.spotify.com/episode/59LNrOwNGCGJOgMSsOaEA8?si=eoR7uzRaTV2z8sNu4Dr4xQ

Conclusion: Beyond Statistics, Trauma

The cold statistics for the week of October 23-29, 2025, outline a clear profile: a man, predominantly between 36 and 53 years old, who kills a woman in Northern Italy with whom he has, or has had, an emotional or family relationship. But behind these numbers are broken lives and, as Judicial Relational Psychotraumatology teaches, the failure of entire attachment systems. These homicides are almost never unpredictable "rages"; they are the final act in a long chain of unseen, unmanaged, untreated relational traumas. They are the extreme manifestation of conflicts that, as highlighted in previous analyses, explode because "no one stopped them." ONOF's constant monitoring serves not only to count victims but to listen to the silence that precedes the act. It serves to understand that prevention can no longer be merely emergency-based, but must become structural, intervening on traumatic family dynamics before they become irremediably lethal.

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