The Shadow of the acquaintance: the evidence of male victims in family homicides. comparative analysis ONOF (october 30 - november 5, 2025)

By: Massimo Lattanzi, Tiziana Calzone and Caterina Ventura (AIPC – Italian Association of Psychology and Criminology; CIPR – Italian Center for Relational Psychotraumatology; ONOF – National Observatory on Family Homicides)

Abstract

This study analyzes the evolution of family crimes in Italy through a comparative analysis of two consecutive weeks (October 23-29 and October 30-November 5, 2025), based on data from AIPC's National Observatory on Family Homicides (ONOF). The analysis uses the lens of Forensic Relational Psychotraumatology, an approach defined by Lattanzi and Calzone (2025), to decode the underlying dynamics of statistical data. While the week of October 23-29 showed a "classic" risk profile, with a prevalence of femicides (67% female victims, killed by partners or relatives), the week of October 30-November 5 presents a total statistical reversal: 100% of homicide victims are male and 100% were killed by acquaintances. This "binarism" of violence highlights how dysfunctional relational trauma is expressed in two prevalent lethal forms: intimate possessive violence (femicide) and social conflictual violence (homicide between acquaintances).

1. Introduction and methodological context

The Italian Association of Psychology and Criminology (AIPC) and the Italian Center for Relational Psychotraumatology (CIPR), coordinated by Dr. Massimo Lattanzi and Dr. Tiziana Calzone, circularly monitor violence. Through the operational arm of the National Observatory on Family Homicides (ONOF), AIPC conducts a weekly assessment of family crimes.

It is fundamental to define two key concepts of this approach:

• Open sources (OSINT): The analyzed data do not come from institutional sources but are the result of a systematic screening of journalistic outlets. This method allows for real-time monitoring of the phenomenon as it is perceived and narrated at a social level.
• Definition of “Familiarity”: ONOF adopts an extended definition of "family crime," which goes beyond the ISTAT classification. The degree of "familiarity" includes partners, ex-partners, relatives, but also acquaintances, colleagues, and neighbors. This methodological choice is based on the psychotraumatological assumption that lethal violence is almost always the outcome of a dysfunctional relationship, whether intimate or social.

2. Homicide analysis: october 30 – november 5, 2025

The analysis of the current week (October 30 - November 5) offers a statistical profile of impressive purity, isolating a specific criminal dynamic.

Victim profile (N=3 Homicides)

• Gender: 100% Male. No female victims were recorded.
• Age: Victims are uniformly distributed among adult age groups: 18-35 (33%), 36-53 (33%), and 54-71 (34%).
• Familiarity with perpetrator: 100% Acquaintances. This data is the core of the analysis: lethal violence occurred entirely within social relationships (not intimate or couple-based).
• Geography: Prevalence in the North (67%).

Perpetrator profile (N=3 Homicides)

• Gender: 100% Male.
• Age: The prevalent age group is 36-53 years (67%).
• Familiarity with victim: 100% Acquaintances.

The psychotraumatological analysis of this week highlights a pattern of reactive and conflictual violence. We are facing homicides that emerge from quarrels, arguments, and social conflicts between men. These acts are not unpredictable "raptus" but the final escalation of dysfunctional relational systems, where the primary emotional systems of RAGE and FEAR (Panksepp) are unregulated and lead to the destruction of the other, perceived as a threat in a social context.

3. Correlation and binarism: comparison (october 23-29)

To fully understand the meaning of the data from October 30 – November 5, it is essential to correlate it with that of the immediately preceding week (October 23-29, 2025).

Homicide Data (October 23-29, 2025):

• Victims: 3 in total. The profile was reversed: 67% Women (2) and 34% Men (1).
• Perpetrators: 100% Men.
• Dynamic (Familiarity):
  • The 2 female victims were killed by a Partner (33%) and a Relative (33%).
  • The single male victim (34%) was killed by an Acquaintance (34%).

The comparison between the two weeks is scientifically illuminating. The only constant is the perpetrator's gender (100% male). The variable is the victim.

The AIPC/CIPR analysis defines this phenomenon as the "binarism of risk":

• Female Risk (Femicide): The week of October 23-29 shows the dynamic of intimate relational trauma. Women were killed in the context of affective or family relationships, where violence is linked to possession, control, and the dysregulation of the DESIRE and RAGE systems in a couple context.
• Male Risk (Conflictual Homicide): The week of October 30-November 5 shows the other side of relational trauma. Here, violence is enacted in a social context (acquaintances). It is interesting to note that the only man killed in the previous week (October 23-29) died in exactly this way (at the hands of an acquaintance).

The week of October 30 - November 5, therefore, does not represent an anomaly, but an extreme statistical emphasis of the second dynamic of "family" violence: that which sees men dying at the hands of other men they know.

4. Conclusion

The joint analysis of these two weeks, through the lens of Forensic Relational Psychotraumatology, demolishes the narrative of "unpredictable violence." The data demonstrate that family and relational homicides follow two clear patterns, both rooted in relational traumas and dysfunctional dynamics.

In the week of October 23-29, we witnessed femicide. In the week of October 30-November 5, we see a complete absence of femicide and the exclusive emergence of male homicide at the hands of acquaintances.

This does not mean that gender violence has disappeared; it means that the ONOF Observatory, thanks to its methodology, is able to capture the entire spectrum of relational violence. The profile of the week of October 30-November 5 – Man (100%) killed by Man (100%) in a context of Acquaintance (100%) – is the hidden statistic that is often lost in reports focused exclusively on intimate partner violence.

It is scientific proof that homicide, whether intimate or social, is never an isolated event but the collapse of a relational system. Prevention, as supported by AIPC, can only come from a scientific risk assessment (such as the A.S.V.S. – AIPC Scientific Violence Screening protocol) that can read these dynamics before they become lethal.

This AIPC video, although related to a different period, discusses the methodology and importance of weekly reports on family crimes.

The past is never past: free your life, heal your relationships!

Have you ever wondered why certain patterns repeat in your life? Why relationships seem like a minefield or your health, both physical and mental, falters without apparent reason? The answer might lie in a shadow you carry with you, often invisible: early relational traumas or those inherited from previous generations.

These ancient wounds, originating in the early stages of life or silently transmitted by our parents, are not just faded memories. They are deep imprints that shape your perception of yourself, others, and the world. They determine your choices, influence your emotions, sabotage your relationships, and can undermine your individual health in ways you cannot imagine.

The freedom to be fully yourself, to love and to live without chains, begins with knowledge. Ignoring these roots means condemning yourself to repeat painful patterns, to live with a sense of incompleteness, or to navigate a sea of uncertainty. Knowing them, instead, is the first step to breaking the cycle, to rewriting your story, and to building authentic health and meaningful relationships.

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Contact CIPR in Pescara and Rome immediately. Experts in the field are ready to guide you on a journey of discovery and healing.

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