The inversion of the homicide profile: ONOF Report on family homicides (Week of December 25–31, 2025).

Psychotraumatological and criminological analysis.

Edited by: Dr. Massimo Lattanzi, Dr. Tiziana Calzone, and Dr. Alice Russo.
Entities: Italian Association of Psychology and Criminology (AIPC), Italian Center for Relational Psychotraumatology (CIPR), and the National Observatory on Family Homicides (ONOF).

OSINT (Open Source Intelligence) methodology

This analysis was conducted using the OSINT methodology, based on the collection, selection, and analysis of data from open sources. In the absence of immediate institutional data, the research utilized systematic monitoring of news outlets to extract quantitative and qualitative variables regarding family crimes. This approach allows for a real-time reading of the scope of homicide and attempted homicide phenomena, which is fundamental for guiding prevention and contrast interventions.

Abstract

This contribution analyzes the trend of "family crimes" recorded during the week of December 25 to 31, 2025, via OSINT methodology. The investigation, conducted through the A.S.V.S. protocol, highlights an inversion of the typical homicide profile: 100% of homicide victims are male (aged 72+), while 100% of the alleged perpetrators are female (aged 36-53), both belonging to the category of partners operating in Northern Italy.

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Statistical Analysis and Criminal Profiles

Data collected for the week under review indicate that 80% of total victims of family crimes are men. Geographical distribution shows a concentration of 60% of cases in Central Italy.

1. The typical homicide victim profile

The data analysis reveals a specific profile for victims of completed homicides:

• Gender: Male (100%).
• Age: 72+ bracket (100%).
• Familiarity: The perpetrator belongs to the "Partner" category (100%).
• Location: Northern Italy (100%).

2. The typical profile of the alleged homicide perpetrator

The offender profile identified in this time window presents the following characteristics:

• Gender: Female (100%).
• Age: 36-53 bracket (100%).
• Relationship: Partner of the victim (100%).
• Location: Northern Italy (100%).

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3. Attempted homicides: variables and tools

In the 4 cases of attempted homicide monitored:

• 75% of the victims are men.
• 50% of episodes involve partners and 50% involve acquaintances.
• Sharp weapons (knives) are the prevalent tool, used in 100% of cases by female perpetrators and in 33% by male perpetrators.

The Milan case

OSINT monitoring allowed for an in-depth study of a case in Milan involving a 72-year-old man. Case Analysis:

• Chronology: The victim was found lifeless just four days after reporting his wife for maltreatment.
• Relational dynamics: This event represents a dramatic escalation of domestic violence. The formal report indicates an attempt by the victim to interrupt the cycle of trauma and relational submission.
• Clinical implications: From the perspective of relational psychotraumatology, the hyper-activation of defense systems and emotional anesthesia can prevent a non-violent conflict resolution. When one member of the dyad attempts to escape control, the risk of a fatal outcome increases exponentially if not supported by timely clinical-judicial intervention.

Conclusion

Weekly data confirm that family violence manifests in complex patterns requiring specific, multidimensional risk assessment. The high incidence of male victims (80%) highlights the need to promote an inclusive culture of prevention, offering support to victims, perpetrators, and family members regardless of gender. As the AIPC and CIPR team, we reiterate that only through the treatment of relational trauma is it possible to prevent conflict from transforming into crime.